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Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Financial Armageddon in California. The State is Going Bankrupt and Civil Unrest Boils Over.

Abstract: California is hopelessly in debt and the legislature is deadlocked on the spending issues. Spending will increase and debt will soar. IOUs my have to be issued and vendors and others may refuse new business and services to the state. The IOUs are not currently taxable under federal and state law and are not transferable but bear a 5% coupon. They are warrants of some kind. A wealth tax for those exiting the state was proposed a few years ago and this is the way to get money fast from the ‘rich.’ The quest for money now sets the state up for some potential revolution.

It is always of interest to watch politicians in their ritual dances as they attempt to be ‘fair’ and egalitarian in their mishandling of spending, debt and taxes. Californians[1][2][3][4][5] are by far the most interesting to watch, unless, of course, you are in their tax clutches.

It is interesting to view the budget and tax numbers and the ‘reasons’ why the state should spend itself into terminal debt. In a previous blog[6] the plunge into a financial Armageddon was outlined, but, interestingly, the basis for running the state still hinges, in the incoherent view of the leftists in Sacramento, on the phony nostrum that tax increases will solve their problems. Any discussion of the numbers is now not worth the while because pointing out that the US is broke doesn’t even pierce the marijuana fumes as the leftists use the courts to block any cuts by the governor. California will willingly accept alms from the fed or anywhere else.

The entire issue now is related to a malignant pursuit for money from any source including dope sales and probably worse. The rants are growing in intensity:

How to best read my blogs:

[I offer extensive quotes in this blog so that the reader can view the exact language and can be confident that nothing was taken out of context or that nobody was misquoted. The easiest way to take in the salient points is to read the emphatic points in the quotes and then peruse my comments. Comments on my comments are always welcome: ryckki@gmail.com.]

First, the furloughs have been recently blocked by some ‘judge.’[7] Next, we hear pleas to be reasonable and the need for some functional budget that has magical properties:

Continued stalemate is pointless and irresponsible. Legislators should drop the partisan rigidity and craft a budget that offers real, permanent solutions to the state's ongoing fiscal woes. The feasible choices for fixing state finances will be no different a month or two from now. Continued standoff serves no public purpose.”[8]-- Budget bunk Editorial By The Press-Enterprise 10:00 PM PDT on Sunday, August 8, 2010 [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

Okay, what does the budget look like? Well, the Democrats have some complicated scheme to cut 1.8 billion [only 10%] and that is all.[9] What kind of plan is this?

The centerpiece of this latest proposal is an $8.7 billion hike in personal income taxes and a $1.5 billion hike in car taxes. Both of these taxes were already increased last year, and add to the pain of families and small businesses reeling from a prolonged economic recession. Voters rejected extending lesser versions of these same income and car tax hikes in a May 2009 special election.

The Democrats claim these huge tax increases will have a negligible impact on most Californians because they can be written off as a tax deduction on federal income taxes. The problem is that only 38 percent of California taxpayers ---- typically higher-income earners ---- itemize their deductions. Those who don't ---- the poor, seniors, renters and working families ---- will be hit the hardest.”[10]-- FORUM: Irresponsibility marks Democrats' budget plan North County Times San Diego [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

Ah, push it off onto the Feds. Sure. It is not possible for a reasonable person to look at these tax hikes that increase the meager tax revenues of about 80 bln or so some additional 10%! A 10% tax hike will have “a negligible impact on most Californians”??

The liberals hungrily hang to their Marxian fetid precept that raising taxes is fine and it will raise revenues as well. The facts argue against this [see the Laffer Curve[11]]. They believe that there is no upper limit on taxation as corporations will want to stay in business and will pay these taxes. The liberals are not genuine here as they can only tax and spend with abandon. Here is an absurdity from 2008 reduced to incoherent mumblings in the case of home owners in trouble in California:

An absurd plan to help homeowners who are about to lose their homes:

The best way out of the current mess that avoids a taxpayer rescue is for lenders to modify loans.”[12]-- Pia Lopez, Sacramento Bee.

But the role of loans for people who don't qualify for a lower-cost, prime loan should be to provide them with a loan so they can build a credit history and refinance into a conventional loan with better terms when their credit improves.”[13]—Pia Lopez, Sacramento Bee.

This reference omits any reference as to where the money will come from. Lopez expects the lenders to take a haircut. It also postulates that if we give them money they will use it wisely and thus establish a good credit history so they can borrow more. Here is governor Schwarzenegger’s view:

Today we stand at a great crossroads. The economic crisis has rocked governments and families around the world and forced us all to confront harsh realities that were ignored for far too long. For California, the reality is that for decades government has been racking up debt by making promises it could not afford.

After solving a $60-billion deficit last year — which included many tough and unpopular cuts — we face another $20-billion shortfall this year. We have $500 billion in government-employee pension debt alone, a mind-numbing figure that is six times the size of our entire state budget and 10 times the amount we spend on education.[14]--Fixing California's budget for good

Debt, debt and more debt.

A state budget that cuts spending and does not raise taxes is the surest way to revive our ailing economy.

And at the same time, our corporate, sales and income tax rates are among the highest in the nation.

This is simply unsustainable. And let me remind you that this debt disease is not just a threat to California. Look at what is happening in other states and other nations like Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Britain and even the United States. In fact, the co-chair of President Obama's debt commission recently compared our national debt to a cancer. "It is truly going to destroy the country from within," said Democrat Erskine Bowles.

Yet right now, there are those in
Sacramento who want to continue tumbling down the same destructive path of more borrowing and higher taxes. That path will lead us to economic suicide.”-- Fixing California's budget for good

Cut spending? Furlough workers?? Not a chance in the Marxist environment we elected to office.

After years and years, it is clear that the rabid left will not willingly cut spending. Indeed, the excess spending is the only hope for expansion of their cancerous growth.

We desperately need an example of what debt can do to an economy and I was hoping that Greece or Spain would show us when [not IF] they default. My choice for California to go down first was set back since some federal monies ooze into the state disguised as ‘education’ or welfare or unemployment gifts. There is no known scenario by which California can recover from this as they are increasingly more anti-business in their legislation and outlook and only invite the inevitable default. Their hopes then rest solely upon Washington for gifts as they cannot finance a loan. There is a strong parallel between the mentalities of the politicians in California and Greece as they both have the same affliction. Both are going broke and refuse to cut spending.[15] New York, New Jersey and Michigan are in similar positions in debt. These entities are almost entirely controlled by leftist elites.

This debilitating debt process is not exactly a new story as we saw the horrible outcome of the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, Cuba, the People’s Republic during the Great Leap Forward and many other examples of how the far left can grab tangible assets and money and spend it in inefficient ways and bring whole continents down to poverty levels. The prediction circuits were wired in and the red lights blinking for us all to see all the way back to the 1890s and somewhat before that era. But, history’s events are not any reasonable deterrent to overspending and poor economic choices.[16]

We are past the point of reason now. Every person should prepare for wild and unrestrained grunting and pandering for money from Washington, DC and in many of the states. There is no recourse now but to attempt to institute a wealth tax or to attach our 401(k)s and Roth IRAs to state or federal budgets. That means that every citizen must find ways to preserve their wealth because civil unrest, cleptocracy and urban warfare are next on the agenda.

It will probably begin with California’s John Chiang:

Here is some fluff from California State “Controller” John Chiang[17]:

Visiting the Fresno Rotary Club for the first time, California State Controller John Chiang didn't hold back. ”If you think the tax increases they're talking about are stiff, or if you think the spending cuts they talk about today are drastic, you have not seen anything yet,"[18] said Chiang.”-- Calif. Controller Discusses Budget Crisis in Fresno Monday, January 26, 2009 [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

First come the IOUs and then businesses will refuse to accept them because they are unsecured debt with an indeterminate term. You cannot pay your employees and creditors with IOUs. A wealth tax will be proposed.[19] Then the street riots. Then probable looting in the Watts manner in a quest for ‘social justice.’

This only leads to chaos.

rycK

Comments: ryckki@gmail.com



[5] Copulating with Coprolites [II]: The Unveiled Mechanism of Governance by Progressive Liberalism in California[5]

http://ryckki.blogspot.com/2010/08/copulating-with-coprolites-ii-unveiled.html

[6] California Becomes the National Leper like Greece is for the EU II. They Need All our Money and More.

http://ryckki.blogspot.com/2010/07/california-becomes-national-leper-like.html

[8] Budget bunk By The Press-Enterprise 10:00 PM PDT on Sunday, August 8, 2010 http://www.pe.com/localnews/opinion/editorials/stories/PE_OpEd_Opinion_D_op_09_ed_dembudget.29d90d6.html [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

[9] Even if the Democrats won approval of their plan, it would raise just $1.8 billion, and that is by their own suspect calculation. The other 90 percent of the budget deficit would remain unsolved. http://www.insidebayarea.com/opinion/ci_15720952

[10] FORUM: Irresponsibility marks Democrats' budget plan North County Times San Diego http://www.nctimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/article_5da7f666-a13f-512b-9e3e-5bf4d473d611.html

[12] Pia Lopez: The party's over; now comes the big cleanup With state at heart of credit crisis, it's up to governor to propose bold steps By Pia Lopez plopez@sacbee.com Published: Sunday, Oct. 12, 2008 http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/1305207-p2.html

http://www.sacbee.com/110/story/1305207-p3.html

[14] Fixing California's budget for good

A state budget that cuts spending and does not raise taxes is the surest way to revive our ailing economy. http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-schwarzenegger-20100810,0,5674221.story

[18] .”-- Calif. Controller Discusses Budget Crisis in Fresno Monday, January 26, 2009 http://abclocal.go.com/kfsn/story?section=news/politics&id=6626028

[19] Shavian Notions Revisited: The Wealth Tax and Other Mistakes

Thursday, November 15, 2007 12:05 PM

http://rycksrationalizations.townhall.com/g/2d8b7149-45c1-452a-85fa-2121160e1e30

Earlier this month, a California activist began gathering signatures to put a state wealth tax on the ballot. The measure would impose a new 35% income surtax (in addition to federal taxes and the existing 10.3% top state rate), and penalize people who leave the state by seizing 55% of assets exceeding $20 million. The money raised would be used to eliminate the state's budget deficit and for purchasing controlling shares in large corporations.”

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