New comments: Some ‘analyst’ has calculated the price of shares to be sold to the public although pertinent and very necessary information is absent. If they own 66 bln to the government then this calculates out [my calc not theirs] to about 500 million shares. This is to be ‘split up’ before the IPO?? Okay, if we split 10:1 that gets the opening price down to about $15 per share right in the target zone of a common IPO. That is then a mere 5 billion shares or 1-3 times what the NYSE does in a good day. This is a Ponzi scheme or worse—a Madoff Scheme.
The mumbling begins here:
“The price needed for a full recovery of the
“Last week, in fact, Morningstar analyst David Whiston issued a preliminary estimate setting the shares' fair value at $134.
"GM's cost structure is drastically improved," Whiston wrote in a Sept. 13 note to investors. "We think GM's earning potential is excellent because it finally has a healthy North American unit and can focus its marketing efforts on just four brands instead of eight. . . . We think it is critical for investors to know that GM now makes excellent car models as well as light trucks."-- GM must sell for $134 a share
Really? And the union labor costs, fully burdened are what compared to the prvious $73 per employee? Do the unions get their percentage out of this sale? If the unions own 17.5% of GM[2] for about 12 billion dollars. That is a real good deal for the unions and ranks up there with neat deals like the kind Warren Buffer to Bernie Madoff get.
And more hocus pocus:
“Note however that when the GM IPO happens, the company's shares will likely be split ahead of time into smaller pieces, in order to provide a lower per-share price and attract retail investors. We weren't big fans of the bailout, but let's see how the IPO goes.”[3]-- Taxpayers Will Break Even On The GM Bailout... If The New Shares Hit $134 By Vincent Fernando, CFA
So, we, again, are left with no information. The number of shares proffered is unknown, the book value is unknown, We don’t even know how this $134 a share works out because the number of shares is not stated.
There is something very wrong here. This is Government Motors and they cannot seem to be open and honest about any aspects. They cheated the primary secured bond holders out of most of their money, gave the greedy and very expensive unions a hearty fraction of the wreckage and now they want to stick investors with this hokum.
No wonder we cannot trust our government at this time. They have obviously panicked and are broaching the limits of the law, decency and honesty to make this mess ‘a success’ so Obama can claim at least one victory in his vast and endless assortment of failures.
We must wait until the details of the IPO come out and get the book value, debt structure and sales revenue forcasts. This is a disaster and reeks of blundering inefficiency like we saw in HUD, Social Security and Medicade.
The previous two posts are shown below:
rycK
____________________________________________________________
Previous Abstract: The GM IPO filing is out and it contains exactly nothing of substance. There are so many pitfalls and pungi stakes in this swamp that there is no way to suggest that anybody should buy these stocks. The current history of Tesla Motors shows us that their IPO surged and then crashed catching investors on the upswing to lose money [$30.42 down to 15 for a quickie 50% shellacking] My prediction is that the preferred stocks in this scam will be offered privately to insiders [like Warren Buffett] and they will convert to common before the bad news is released and the other stockholders take the loss. This is your government in action.
We are always interested in the growth of business and the purchase of equities of various flavor and, a few years back, the new and exciting IPOs that were offered in the Dot Com Era such as Ariba, Red Hat and more were popular and profitable and those are some that I participated in. I missed Google.[4] The IPO activity has been particularly quiet for the last few years [except recently in China] and many corporations merely hung on with their financial fingernails as the economy tanked and is still crashing under the massive weight of 14 trillion dollars in national debt, rising at 10% per year or more for the next several years.
GM was a sorry and particularly disgusting crash with liberal Democrats bawling over the wreckage and greedy unions hoping to get their jobs secured by federal laws.
From a previous blog on this subject
“This attracted political attention and the Obama organization decided to fix the problem by nationalizing the company. This conforms to my theory of ‘spreading around the wealth.’[5] GM was swamped by $80 billion in debt and was going bankrupt. Our current Neo-Marxist liberal/radical government now blends fascism[6][7][8] with socialism in an attempt to redistribute the wealth and they applied this in fact as we saw in the GM and Chrysler bailouts where bond holders and stock holders were wiped out [a 70% haircut in the parlance for the bond holders] and the shrunken remains given to the unions while the management was replaced by orders from the White House.[9] The unions retained some 17% of the company [for what?? Political reciprocity??] and the
This was the picture in April 2010 and the number crunching that must proceed any new stock purchase on this second socialist exercise in the US are masked by the fact that they do not appear in the IPO filing. According to the New York Times, suspect in all matters, but this time publishing the raw truth, a surprise, are these:
“[1] In the filing, G.M. did not disclose the number of shares that it planned to sell or a price range,…
[2] …the total offering was expected to raise more than $10 billion and could approach $15 billion or more….
[3] G.M. said the offering will include preferred shares as well as common stock, though the company will not sell any additional common shares directly. The preferred shares would be converted to common stock in 2013 at a rate that was not disclosed.
[4] The registration also did not disclose how much of a stake that the government would sell immediately, but it said taxpayers would “continue to own a substantial interest in us following this offering.” People briefed on the matter said last week that the Treasury was expected to sell about a fifth of its shares, bringing the taxpayers’ stake in G.M. below 50 percent.
[5] In the four years before its bankruptcy, G.M. lost $88 billion. [higher than my estimate above. Ed.]
[6] Mr. Whitacre said he wanted the Treasury to sell off its full stake as quickly as possible.
“We want the government out, period,” he told reporters earlier this month after speaking at an automotive conference in
Edited 8.20.10
Some comments from the GM IPO filing:
“GM said that as of June 30, "we concluded that our disclosure controls and procedures were not effective at a reasonable assurance level because of the material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting..." Thus, you might not be surprised to learn, GM can't promise to "report accurately our financial condition and results of operations in the future in a timely and reliable manner..."”[12]-- Quick read: What you need to know in GM's IPO filing
“"In some cases, the technologies that we plan to employ, such as hydrogen fuel cells and advanced battery technology, are not yet commercially practical," and a for-instance, GM says, is the "Chevrolet Volt, an electric car, which requires battery technology that has not yet proven to be commercially viable. There can be no assurance that these advances will occur in a timely or feasible way...” -- Quick read: What you need to know in GM's IPO filing
“"We cannot assure you that any of our contemplated restructurings will be completed or achieve the desired results, and if we cannot successfully complete such restructurings, we may choose to, or the directors of the relevant entity may be compelled to, or creditors may force us to, seek relief for our various European operations under applicable local bankruptcy, reorganization, insolvency" laws.” -- Quick read: What you need to know in GM's IPO filing
Now, if that is not sorry work.
Apart and beyond telling us exactly nothing in this deal [except that GM is a losing game with idiots in control] we have no clue on what is happening. Note that if Treasury is selling stock and the public is buying stock and there are some convertible preferred shares involved [let me guess they go to ‘preferred’ buyers like Warren Buffett at a fat 10% guarantee[13][14][15]] there is no way for even GM to determine how much operating cash they can get from this sale. We don’t have a clue what the book value is as the current wreckage is not public. We, as taxpayers, only know that we own some 60% of this trash.
So, what does the Wall Street Journal know about this:
“The IPO, expected later this year, will potentially raise $10 billion to $15 billion. An expected price range for the shares will be determined closer to the sale.
The 734-page registration filing outlines GM's business plan and potential risks facing the company, along with detailed financial statements.”[16]-- GM Files for Long-Awaited IPO By Sharon Terlep And Dan Fitzpatrick
Here is a hint:
“For the government to recoup its full investment GM must achieve a stock-market value of $70 billion—10 times GM's market capitalization before the company headed into bankruptcy-court protection in June 2009, and at least $30 billion more than the market value of Ford Motor Co.”-- GM Files
This is like an algebra problem where there is only one equation that has three unknowns and you get to plunk in a few numbers here and there and guess at what the result will be. If GM only picks up $10 bln then that is way short of the $70 necessary for the government to break even. It might be that if the government sells shares too soon then they might never recoup their ‘investment’ in this mess and if they wait too long and GM fails then we can go back to the Treasury and fix up this mess with more taxpayer monies and go for a retry. Selling and buying shares in the same company simultaneously usually leads to uncertainties and suspicion. There are scenarios for speculators to make sell numerous naked puts and calls in this mess.
More bad news:
“To ready a return to the public markets, GM last week announced that Daniel Akerson, a former telecommunications executive appointed to the GM board by the Obama administration, will become the company's CEO on Sept. 1”-- GM Files
One thing is very clear in all this: our ‘government’ cares not a whoop or a holler how much tax money is wasted in this wreckage as they only care about retaining the votes and generous cash donations to liberal Democrats from the unions. That much ought to be clear.
This preferred stock gig here is disturbing me the most. There is a good chance that the conversion to common might be very generous [1.2 to 1.5 per share] and so generous that if the company crashes, as it should because it is not competitive in US markets, ignoring China with Buick sales, and that leaves the possibility that some wonderful person could buy those preferred shares with a 10% guarantee and take the interest and switch over to common as the company crashes and the government shares would plummet down toward zero value.
That is the kind of plan I expect from
This is a potential scam in the making with profits backstopped by your tax monies.
Intelligent questions:
“How can anyone know whether they’d want to buy this or any other IPO without knowing what percentage of the company you would be owning and the asking price in relation to some reference point of valuation?”[18]-- Investor Insanity Regarding the Coming General Motors IPO .[Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]
“Already established shares have clearly defined P/Es, price book value, price/cash flow relationships yet the rumored GM IPO has not addressed any of these factors. The question most heard has been… “Should the public be allowed to participate or will all the shares go to the privileged?”
If the public is allowed to buy it’s almost certain that they’ll be grossly overpaying for dicey future prospects after a couple of quarters with profits that were ‘manufactured’ along with the Chevy Volt.
If the public is excluded from the IPO, either through complicated bidding rules or other means, it’s likely that the newly issued shares will be ready to “jump and be dumped” onto them at highly inflated prices.”[19]-- Investor Insanity By Paul Price
All these fears are justified in the panic and gloom of the
And the government and leftist media howl about Goldman Sachs!
The Tesla scam is outlined in this article by and the chart[20] is very interesting:
“Priced at $19 it jumped quickly to $30.42 just in time to suck in those who couldn’t get shares on the offering. Within a few days TSLA was down to under $15 to give them a chance at capital losses or tax loss carry forwards for their trouble.
Caveat emptor on the GM offering.”-- Investor Insanity
As voters, we cannot subsidize this mess as it will only encourage more government takeovers of failing companies if they are union backed.
Do not buy GM or Tesla as that is only laying the foundation for more of your tax monies to be wasted. These products are not competitive in a free market.
rycK
Comments to: ryckki@gmail.com
[1] GM must sell for $134 a share for U.S. to recover investment By Peter Whoriskey Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, September 22, 2010; 8:13 PM http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/22/AR2010092205674.html
[3] Taxpayers Will Break Even On The GM Bailout... If The New Shares Hit $134 By Vincent Fernando, CFA
http://www.businessinsider.com/gm-ipo-taxpayers-break-even-2010-9
[4] Asleep
[5] The Phony Quest for More Jobs--A Prediction: Obama will Just Create and Transfer Debt for Jobs Funding.
[6] Muzzling the Media: Fascism Looms Tall in
[7] The New York Times Wants More Control Over Private Equity Firms. More Fascism on Order
[8] Our Economy is Collapsing. The Liberals will Now Institute Some Kind of Neo- Fascism or Socialism or Some New Blend to Maintain Power.
[9] The Phony Quest for More Jobs--A Prediction: Obama will Just Create and Transfer Debt for Jobs Funding.
[10] The Preposterous Notion of ‘Fixing’ the Derivatives Market and Other Follies.
[11] General Motors Files for an Initial Public Offering By Nick Bunkley Published:
[12] Quick read: What you need to know in GM's IPO filing http://content.usatoday.com/communities/driveon/post/2010/08/what-the-highlights-from-gm-ipo-filing/1
[13] Buffy the Bozo Buffett Blows his Baloney Wad in Rails? He must have Another Sweetheart Done Deal in the Bag. II
[14] He paid “$5 billion for Goldman Sachs (GS) preferred shares that pay a 10% dividend.” Isn’t that sweet! Another TARPIE Sweetie! [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]
[15] [3] His company “agreed to buy $3 billion of preferred General Electric (GE) stock. This stock pays a generous dividend of 10%. On top of that,
[16] GM Files for Long-Awaited IPO By Sharon Terlep And Dan Fitzpatrick
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703649004575437351219441406.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEADNewsCollection .[Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]
[17] http://www.freep.com/article/20100818/COL07/100818057/1321/Filing-gives-clues-to-how-GM-is-doing
[18] Investor Insanity Regarding the Coming General Motors IPO http://seekingalpha.com/article/220681-investor-insanity-regarding-the-coming-general-motors-ipo .[Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]
[19] Investor Insanity By Paul Price
No comments:
Post a Comment