Krugman Spins Muppet-Grade Fables to Defend the Defenseless: Solyndra
Abstract: The NYT now tells us that solar power is ‘affordable’ and that the Solyndra Scandal is not realistic. We are offered basic instruction in Moore’s Law that tells us that the cost of solar panels ought to fall 50% every 18 months or so. Using this theory, a $10,000 Rolex watch studded with diamonds made in 1915 should have fallen in price to a dollar or so in 1934 and could be sold in ton quantities for less than a dollar a ton in 1964.The facts are that even with government subsidies, a solar power system will cost more than $6000 and will take payments lasting 13 years to pay for excluding installation costs and financing and maintenance. The base asininity of this form of political grandiloquence soars beyond the limits of a simple lie and enters into the realm of sophisticated propaganda not seen since Pravda.
Introduction:
We are constantly enchanted while perusing the Opinion Section of the Walter Duranty Papers[1]—aka[the near-bankrupt] New York Times, because, like a fairy tale, to play the game and have fun, we have to scurry around and try to identify the bait and the rusty hooks upon which the current political nostrum is suspended. The sophistry is so thick we can pretend we are merely mixing imaginary cement and no group, baring Pravda in their halcyon days, could do a better job. But, viewed from a higher perch, we can also use this paper in the retrograde mode to signal us what new and expensive economic failure scenarios are cooking in the little minds of the sodded left and their scurrying stooges.
Today, we are charmed to learn, pushing a political vector beyond the limits of its most impossible attributes, that making solar panels in the US at costs higher than what the Chinese can do is sound, uplifting and a necessary part of our energy policy. This was the right way to waste $500,000,000 dollars we learn. Silly us! We thought we were cheated.
The
[How to best read my blogs: I offer extensive quotes in this blog so that the reader can view the exact language and can be confident that nothing was taken out of context or that nobody was misquoted. The easiest way to take in the salient points is to read the emphatic points in the quotes and then peruse my comments. Comments on my comments are always welcome: ryckki@gmail.com]
Let us follow the bouncing ball as we sing praises:
First Propaganda Element: A meaningless comparison:
“For decades the story of technology has been dominated, in the popular mind and to a large extent in reality, by computing and the things you can do with it. Moore’s Law — in which the price of computing power falls roughly 50 percent every 18 months — has powered an ever-expanding range of applications, from faxes to Facebook.”[7]-- Here Comes the Sun By PAUL KRUGMAN, November 6, 2011 [Emphasis is mine in all quotes]
This goad is typical of political agitators. They claim that those who protest for more such energy sources have authentic reasons for their sorry position. We should not blame the government for anything unless we put it back on Ronald Reagan. Moore’s Law has nothing to do with most products and services. If this law was general, then by now an original $10,000 dollar diamond encrusted Rolex watch might now sell for pennies a ton as cutting the highest ever selling price in half every 18 months since 1915 [64 instances] would have predicted a price of only $1.22 each by 1934 and you could buy a million of them for less than a dollar by 1965. But, imaginary numbers are the base skill for many who convince others that they are economists or have done great things. [8][9] It is a process whereby suckers can be hooked by the most elementary trolling methods. And, it works. Many people want such gifts and want to believe.
There are other views:
“ScienceDaily (Feb. 22, 2008) — Despite increasing popular support for solar photovoltaic panels in the United States, their costs far outweigh the benefits, according to a new analysis by Severin Borenstein, a professor at the University of California, Berkeley's Haas School of Business and director of the UC Energy Institute.”[10]-- Cloudy Outlook For Solar Panels: Costs Substantially Eclipse Benefits, Study Shows [Emphasis is mine in all quotes]
“At the time of this writing, the installed cost of solar panels runs between $7 to $9 per watt, so a 5 kW system would cost on the order of $35,000-$45,000 and an 8 kW system would be anywhere from $56,000 to $72,000. Many utility companies are offering incentives with some subsidizing as much as 50% of the cost of the system. Even so, a system that generates an average of $73 of electricity per month would take a long time to pay for itself even if you could get it at half cost. For example, a system that cost $18,000 would have a payback period on the order of 20 years. The panel cost today is around $4 per watt and the extra cost that brings it up to $7 to $9 installed is to cover the installation labor and the electronics needed to tie it into your existing electrical system.”[11]-- How much does it cost to install solar on an average US house?
But, let us attack the messengers:
“If that surprises you, if you still think of solar power as some kind of hippie fantasy, blame our fossilized political system, in which fossil fuel producers have both powerful political allies and a powerful propaganda machine that denigrates alternatives.”--Here Comes the Sun
After reading Al Gore, Mike Mann and Phil Jones, I fit in here.[12] As if there is no rabid-dog grade lobby such as the gooney Sierra Club!
A business view:
“Solyndra's business model made no sense -- it was trying to sell solar panels at prices well above the market rate”[13]--What Is the Real Solyndra Scandal? By Charles Gasparino, 9/25/11 03:40 PM ET [Emphasis is mine in all quotes]
Some history of Spain’s self-destruction with solar panels[14] from a previous blog:
“Abstract: Well-meaning but idiotic government workers in Spain subsidized a hopeless solar power project that is now essentially worthless. The cost was astronomical and the government is now withdrawing the subsidies as even the most dedicated leftist can work the numbers and see that this project is terminal and will never work out. This is a classic debt-driven asset bubble formation folly and now it comes crashing down in disgrace. Clumsy excuses are offered for this mess by the Times and we are encouraged to hear that the government regulators in Spain are still ‘learning’ how to subsidize a worthless project. Maybe some of them can rush over to California and show them some new tricks before that state crashes in debt.”[15]
But, our hero continues on:
“But Solyndra’s failure was actually caused by technological success: the price of solar panels is dropping fast, and Solyndra couldn’t keep up with the competition. In fact, progress in solar panels has been so dramatic and sustained that, as a blog post at Scientific American put it, “there’s now frequent talk of a ‘Moore’s law’ in solar energy,” with prices adjusted for inflation falling around 7 percent a year.”-- Here Comes the Sun
For these numbers, I wonder how close, in political terms, 50% is to 7%? Close? Exact?? Given that Krugman pretends at Econ, referencing, boldly, Econ 101,[16] then where were the supply and demand factors that forced prices lower? Why was Solyndra not able to compete? Ignorance? Not manufacturing cost savings as they routinely fly to the bottom line thus to profits. Nor demand because if solar cell prices fall to 1% of their current value, or that price when Solyndra started this charade, I will buy 7 or 8 and give free energy to my neighbors. The FACT is that Solyndra was not competitive, a concept alien to liberals. Look at the last paragraph here for proof.
Summing up:
“So what you need to know is that nothing you hear from these people is true. Fracking is not a dream come true; solar is now cost-effective. Here comes the sun, if we’re willing to let it in.”-- Here Comes the Sun
I can imagine the growth of encrusted drool on the shoes of the average progressive as they salivate over this wonderful deal. And green too!!
Here is a commercial home solar panel cost calculator for the interested to diddle with. Here is their pitch:
“Before we are able to design a system we have to know:
• How many kilowatt hours a month you use currently. This information can be found on your electric bill.
• Where you live. (so we can estimate how many hours a day the sun shines.)
• Where you will be able to install the panels. (A south facing roof is best.)
• How much of your electric bill you can afford to offset with solar.
With Wholesale Solar’s current pricing (November 2011), a medium sized gridtie system that generates about 692 kWh a month would cost about $11,052 BEFORE the 30% federal tax credit and rebates offered by your state or utility company. This particular system includes twenty two 230 watt solar panels and IronRidge racking. The Federal tax credit would take the cost down to $6,482.70. This price does not include installation, which varies tremendously by locale. Take a look at tax incentives for your state.”[17] [Emphasis is mine in all quotes]
I pay 14 cents per kWh and my local dealer [Home Depot] said I could save a maximum of $500 per year if I bought one with costs running about $15,000. Taking the numbers above we can start at $6,482.70 plus installation. [?? How much is that??] If the installation was free then to break even with my solar panel savings I would have to wait to break even for 6482/500 or 12.96 years. This is for cash so we can ignore finance costs. Then there is maintenance! What gizmo runs maintenance free for 13 years?
This is so pitiful. And, the worst part is that some ‘citizens’ actually believe this rubbish. That is why [1] we are broke, our debt now being 100% of our GDP and [2] we elect morons to positions in government who believe every jot and tittle printed in the New York Times. What we need is a Moore’s law’ in government.
rycK
[1] In honor of that celebrated Communist stooge and liar and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for the
“He said that these people had to be "liquidated or melted in the hot fire of exile and labor into the proletarian mass". Duranty claimed that the Siberian labor camps were a means of giving individuals a chance to rejoin Soviet society but also said that for those who could not accept the system, "the final fate of such enemies is death." Duranty, though describing the system as cruel, says he has "no brief for or against it, nor any purpose save to try to tell the truth". He ends the article with the claim that the brutal collectivization campaign which led to the famine was motivated by the "hope or promise of a subsequent raising up" of Asian-minded masses in the Soviet Union which only history could judge.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walter_Duranty
[2] A new plural of this word.
[3] Propaganda Gem: Krugman Distorts History as He Grubs for More Taxes.
[4] Propaganda Alert: The New York Times Axes the Right Questions and then Answers Them with the Left Answers.
[5] Political Lessons from the Fairy Tales by the New York Times: Propaganda at Work.
[6] Propaganda Lesson: Economics and Recessions from The NYT: A Long [Sad] Story and Stern Tutorial on Tax Cuts.
http://rycksrationalizations.townhall.com/g/2bea69e5-bb30-4923-9ed4-192199970c1a
[7] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/07/opinion/krugman-here-comes-solar-energy.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
[8] Obama’s Phony Nobel Peace Prize and the Role of International Leftist Politics.
[9] Krugman Receives the Ultimate Insult: The Swede's Bozo Prize for Leftist Stooges.
[10] Cloudy Outlook For Solar Panels: Costs Substantially Eclipse Benefits, Study Showshttp://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&num=100&newwindow=1&q=costs+and+efficiency+of+solar+power&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=
[11] How much does it cost to install solar on an average
[12] Friedman of the
[14] Spain’s Solar Energy Bubble Bursts. California is Next. The First of a Series of GanGreen Asset Bubbles Bursting.
[15] Spain’s Solar Energy Bubble Bursts. California is Next. The First of a Series of GanGreen Asset Bubbles Bursting.
Two links appear here:
“PUERTOLLANO, Spain — Two years ago, this gritty mining city hosted a brief 21st-century gold rush. Long famous for coal, Puertollano discovered another energy source it had overlooked: the relentless, scorching sun.” --Solar Industry Learns Lessons in Spanish Sun By Elisabeth Rosenthal, New York Times, Published: March 8, 2010 [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]
“Soon, Puertollano, home to the Museum of the Mining Industry, had two enormous solar power plants, factories making solar panels and silicon wafers, and clean energy research institutes. Half the solar power installed globally in 2008 was installed in Spain”-- Solar Industry Learns Lessons
Ref: Cloudy Outlook For Solar Panels: Costs Substantially Eclipse Benefits, Study Shows http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&num=100&newwindow=1&q=costs+and+efficiency+of+solar+power&btnG=Search&aq=f&oq=&aqi=
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