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Thursday, June 6, 2013

As Predicted: California Heads for the Financial Latrines



As Predicted: California Heads for the Financial Latrines.

California heads for financial oblivion, but the drooling lefties in Sacramento still cling to the crack-pipe dream that Obama will chuck some money out West to allow them to perpetuate this insane and cancerous growth of leftist government. NY, NJ and MD will probably follow.

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - California's government risks a financial "meltdown" within 50 days in light of its weakening May revenues unless Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and lawmakers quickly plug a $24.3 billion budget gap, the state's controller said on Wednesday.”[1]-- California nears financial "meltdown" as revenues tumble Thu Jun 11, 2009 12:05am EDT by Jim Christie

They will not stop taking dope, sodomizing children or bawling for taxes.

All this was predicted by this blogger:

California Begs for Alms and Descends into Whoredom. The Inferno is at Hand.

California Voters Reject Phony Budget Scams.

California Gets a Temporary Reprieve from the Financial Abyss: The Leftists will NOT Stop Spending. 


California Sinks into the Financial Abyss: The Media Mentality of this Circus Follows

California Sinks into the Financial Abyss.

The Continuing Collapse of California and other Third World Marxist Economies in the Coming Depression II.

The Continuing Collapse of California and other Third World Marxist Economies in the Coming Depression.

The Collapse of California and other Third World Marxist Economies. They want our Taxes.

California has Sold enough Risky Bonds to Stave off the Begging Session in Washington. We have been Spared!

California is Selling Risky Bonds.  The Situation Is Hopeless so Don’t Buy This  Junk.

California Crashes. The Politicos Call for more Regulation and More Government.

California is Going to Try to Sell You Worthless Bonds.  The Situation Is Hopeless so Don’t Buy This Junk.

California is Going Down. Prepare to Get Out! The Situation is Hopeless

The Leftists Have a ‘Solution’ to California’s Budget Problems: Raise Taxes!! Grab Power!  Novel!

California Plays Three Card Monte with Taxes and the Budget: Get the hell out of the state.

California Crumbles as Paralyzed Politicos Pass Some Phony Budget: Arnold Will Veto This Wreckage.

California Starts to Crumble under Socialism and Illegal Immigration

An Open Letter about the Final Solution to Global Warming and How to Save California from Burning.  Sunday, February 10, 2008 11:46 AM

Tuesday, January 15, 2008 7:36 PM

Thursday, December 20, 2007 12:44 PM

Conan Deals with the Barbarians: California on the Financial Rocks, as Predicted.
Posted by rycK on Sunday, December 16, 2007 1:57:16 PM

Tuesday, November 20, 2007 6:22 PM


This mess is based on these reviews of what the perverted lefties think and do in that so-called state:

The Road to Social Success, Peace and Justice: California has the Vision!

Cryptomisoxeny[2] Explained by Theory and Examples.

An Urgent Need for a New Definition of Racism. [Cryptomisoxeny?]


I told you so. rycK a 5th generation 49er in exile.


Comments: ryckki@gmail.com




[1] California nears financial "meltdown" as revenues tumble
[2] One cannot interject skin color into any conversation in America any more without giving the race baiters and professional racists an opening for scoring points against their enemies. The disease of racism is politically convoluted and is now described as an act of cryptomisoxeny [2] whereby a self-declared non racist might employ overt racism in prose, form, speeches or by inuendo and thus ‘identify’ and expose a supposed racist whose comments or methods cannot be disgintuished from those of the accuser. The New York Times—aka the Walter Duranty Papers[2] is famous for perfecting this process as professionally-trained, dedicated racists squat upon their lofty thrones at the Old Gray Lady and work the levers of the tacky tactics of racism to attack and expose ‘racists’ in their editorials. The Times extends this logic to assert that anybody who disagrees with their editorials and analysis on race matters are actually racists. Merely disagreeing with the Times on any political matter is tantamount to an admission of racism, ignorance, bias, cannibalism, or at least some limited form of degeneracy.

Monday, March 25, 2013



Shavian Notions Revisited: The Wealth Tax and Other Mistakes
Written 11/15/07, Revised Oct, 2012, Revised Mar, 2013

The world is said to be constantly struggling, sometimes couched in the Marxist idiom, to equalize or minimize differences in wealth among the various citizens. Most of the world is poor. We are reminded of those activists like George Bernard Shaw[1] who married into great wealth, became a financial success in the theatre as a play right, but stubbornly urged British and other governments to confiscate property and money and redistribute them into some manner to produce ‘equal incomes.’ He was never able to satisfactorily delineate this plan when challenged, but did support Lenin, Mussolini, Hitler and others who had any socialist views as alternatives to the post Victorian Imperialism of his age. [2] He supported the pogroms of the Soviets and other measures. He enjoyed his money when he basked in the sun in the French Riviera.

Echoes of Shavianism [a new word] reappear periodically like crab grass in the spring and reamplify the theoretical underpinnings and wobbly buttresses of modern socialism and worse. The latest outburst of ‘we must share the wealth’ comes from yet one other wealthy elite: Warren Buffet.[3] The notion that the aggregate wealth can be equitably divided and positive results sustained in a restructured society as must be demonstrated by the perpetuation of reasonably equal income norms and ownership is, of course, a farce. We need to read little history to show that: [1] such redistribution is impossible and has never been satisfactorily consummated and [2] wealth could spontaneously be redistributed in the hands of those adept in business and other economic skills thus defeating the system.  We have only to revisit the ‘land reform’ efforts of Lenin or measures by Mao, Castro, Ortega, Diem and others to show that this is the theatre of farce. The far left have failed miserably.

What the far left and their apologists refuse to consider is that places like the People’s Republic, Viet Nam, modern India and the like that have risen above abject poverty are the direct result of wealth and power being assumed by talented capitalists only after a firm dismissal of the feudal system and other forms of authoritarianism and replaced with capitalism. The left remain solidly invested in the past in fantasy playgrounds of Bernard Shaw, Karl Marx and Chairman Mao. The poor are clearly better off in China after Mao’s Follies were dismissed. The same is probably true for much of Russia although Putin is trying to reinstitute the KGB as government in the shrunken remnants of the old Soviet Union. Some group is putting to death his opponents in the old Stalin manner.

The teaching of history is: Those with talent and the ability to create wealth must own the assets and control necessary resources and make the decisions that will ensure that the wealth of the general populace will rise and be sustained. This must occur with unequal wealth per citizen. This is the converse of Marxism, which confiscates the wealth, concentrates it in the hands of the usual party loyalists and thus fulfils Trotsky’s Prediction[4], which brought him a whack with an alpine ax in the head in Mexico. Was Tony Soprano around that far back? Leon Trotsky was not wrong—he correctly predicted the current state of most of Africa, much of South American, the latent Eastern Europe satellites and Soviet Clients and other places. How many Marxist dictators have we had in Africa since 1950? 100? 200? How are the poverty levels going? Increasing?


The ostensible noble social essence of Shaw and others has been infected by crass murderers and other such undesirables and was obviously co-opted for political power. Frequently, well-meaning persons are used as stooges for criminals and dictators. Stalin and his party members lived in splendor compared to the average citizen. Brezhnev’s family and friend were prosecuted for usurping the state wealth by Gorbachev. And, to be reasonable, the quest for power in modern times requires vast wealth so we must not be shocked or unimpressed that politicos will Grunt and Grab[5] for money using any excuse available to get political power.  

Those like Buffet, Shaw, Bill Gates and others apparently feel some guilt or have assumed a god-like quality of mind created by their business successes that enables them to clearly see the resolution to social problems. They seem to know exactly what to do. This view, however, is not a solution and history clearly demonstrates this lesson in fullness. They have the situation deliriously backward.

Wealth confiscation and estate taxes becomes merely another layer of oppression with other serious counterproductive factors, and the monies extracted are mostly squandered by governments in expensive social programs. We have spent 6 trillion dollars in social programs and are told by the far left that we are getting poorer every day. Who won the War on Poverty? Where did the Great Society go?

There is no hope for the poor if they continue to listen [and vote] for the sordid left. There are many reasons for poverty such as drug addiction, crime, sloth, social disease, and other matters most of which are tolerated if not explicitly celebrated by the liberal Democrats in our government.

If you want to rise above poverty then the first thing you must do is reject the teachings of socialism and Marxism and their veiled versions. Success comes from education, ambition, savings and hard work. Any one of these defeats the liberal mechanism of failure that keeps them in power.

Here is what Shaw offered in 1928 as he embraced Marxism:

As to the mass of oppressive and unjust laws that protect property at the expense of humanity, and enable proprietors to drive whole populations off the land because sheep or deer are more profitable, we have said enough about them already. Naturally we shall get rid of them when we get rid of private property.[6]

That is the prize that left liberals and their allied Marxists naturally seek.

rycK
________________________________________________________


[1] From whom Shavian, or in my usage Shavianism was named.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Bernard_Shaw

[2]Bernard Shaw,  Random House, 1992.  Vol I: A Search for Love (1988 - 486 pp. ISBN: 0394525779); Vol II: The Pursuit of Power (1989 - 421 pp. ISBN: 0394575539); Vol III: The Lure of Fantasy 1918 – 1951.
 [4] Trotsky criticized Stalin for failing to institute Communism world wide and enjoying the fruits of capitalism for his cronies. He was murdered for this affront.
[5] The incessant quest for other people’s monies using political power.
[6] The Intelligent Woman's Guide to Socialism, Capitalism, Sovietism and Fascism;
Published: Pelican Books, 1937; http://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/shaw/works/guide2.htm

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

The Redistribution of Wealth by Subsidizing Urban Mortgage Debt. Raise Taxes!





[Originally published 23 Jul 2008 Townhall. Com]


Karl Marx’s maxims[1] are assembled in the general notion that there was always an eternal battle between those with property and wealth and the ‘poor’ and this defined his class struggle politics and has prompted the search for ways to spread around the wealth among the nations. There can be no dispute that there are rich and poor and always have been at odds; only the remedy is in question. The efforts of the Leninists, Marxists and other variants of the far left, as mirrored by the Terror of the French Revolution, were not successful as most of ‘revolutions’ were spontaneously ignited in peasant environments while being summarily crushed in the indicated industrialized countries. This initial outcome argued against the basic Marxian precept that the proletariat can conquer capitalism and run industries while returning the excess [profits] to the workers and other peoples. That concept has not been demonstrated as yet. While Russia seemed to respond to the surge, modulated by World War I, Germany and Italy and later Spainhalted the wild rush forward to grab property and industrial production and give them ‘to the people.’ Dedicated revolutionaries like Rosa Luxemburg[2],[3]  and her political allies attempted to grab as much as they could before they were murdered.[4] Counter revolutionaries from the socialist wings of Italy, Germany and Spain [erroneously labeled as right wing] wrestled control from the Bolsheviks in the streets and restricted Marxism to the peasant world. There, the corpse of revolutionary Marxism lies today.

But, since the ‘problem’ of equal outcomes has not been materialized by any mechanism, we are faced with the ongoing search for solutions. Progressive taxation and confiscation of most private property[5] and inheritances remain about the only ways to level the wealth in most industrialized countries to date. Marxism morphed into ‘socialism’ at the behest of many like Bernard Shaw, but even the peaceful Fabians could not ‘talk’ the wealthy into voluntarily sharing their profits and loot with the masses.

The theories of anti-capitalism are snarled by history, disputes over the extent of private property that would be allowed, the role of collectivization of agriculture and later redactions.[6] The net result was the Russian Revolution and the rise of the ‘right’ to counterbalance the errors of the left. Today, this theatre is played upon the stage of modern communication with pleas for assistance for the poor and such.

The results of Marxian revolutions, however, are clearly recorded by history with unparalleled murder, corruption and failure. We can clearly inspect the results of the last 200-300 Marxist dictatorships in Africa and note that they have resorted to tribalism in nearly all cases in order to grab wealth while ignoring even the most remote precepts of socialism. This mentality, mirrored in New Orleans, Baltimore and Detroit, is the current expectation when unbridled left-liberalism is allowed to infect any society. The murder rate soars as the tolerance of drug addiction increases by the left. Let us all feel good—no matter the cost. The low-class phenomenon is currently exemplified by Jesse Jackson[7] and Kamau Kambon [“…exterminate white people off the face of the planet [8] Racism is the most important aspect of leftist politics.

The history of the far left is ugly and defenseless, but the notion that they had the ‘correct view’ of how wealth should be distributed has remained firm in their thoughts. The desired outcome in many cities and countries is not that the outcome of the confiscation of wealth should result in a viable economic society—rather the physical act of confiscating property and political power by any means is justified by the desirable outcome. The leftists still hold that view.  They feel good about wrecking economies. It is proper in the warped logic of the far left that if the capitalists crash along with the rest of society that is okay  as long as their money and wealth are destroyed. Revolution and confiscation of property didn’t work yet, but we can still keep trying until we get to the solution. We can see all this in the outcomes of the Great Society, War on Poverty, revolutions in Cuba, etc: failure.

From the Manifesto:

The distinguishing feature of communism is not the abolition of property
generally, but the abolition of bourgeois property. But modern bourgeois
private property is the final and most complete expression of the system of
producing and appropriating products that is based on class antagonisms, on
the exploitation of the many by the few.”[9]

The difficulties with the unsophisticated and political property divisions among the peoples resemble the problem of Ockham’s razor[10] where we know that the masses cannot generate sufficient goods and services to form a decent society so there must be controls on how the profits are used. They don’t have the skills. This is not a simple issue and given the pyramid system [e.g. Bell Curve[11]] of the distribution of cognitive skills and talents in the world, the ‘average’ person, and certainly those on the bottom of the intelligence ladder, cannot accomplish the tasks. They will fail. If we rely on the notions of egalitarianism where leftist leaders have professed ‘concern’ for the masses then we need to ask the left to explain the Khmer Rouge, The Great Leap Forward, numerous African Marxist Dictatorships, Islamo-Fascism and others. There is no regard for the very poor in any of these cases.  The left will not apologize for the 100,000,000 dead in the last century due to Marxism. They seem to have no history. The poor starved in those times or were crushed by military machines, as they do today, under these systems as they do today in North Korea and the Sudan today. Tribalism remains the strongest societal force in Africa and the Middle East today and given the opportunity, most of the tribal types would massacre their fraternal enemies because they know that their counterparts would do the same if the power fell to them. The cognitively mediocre cannot perform even the basic tasks of society beyond the hunter-gatherer level. They can grunt and grab but not set up a vibrant business. History shows this clearly.

So, the quest for wealth grinds forward by the left as they cannot form a decent society by themselves. Every time they make an attempt, they fail or create some showcase state with major defects [Sweden, in the dirty gun business for 200 years while telling the world they were ‘neutral’ or the case of Switzerland, in the dirty money business, where they shelter the loot of dictators and despots.] and the phony Soviet Showcase of Cuba.

Of the many schemes to spread around the wealth, one of the most recent is the strange notion of private home ownership by the lower classes of our society. Somewhere, the criterion of home ownership, the fulcrum of the American Dream, have been diluted or ignored so that ‘everybody’ is entitled to have a house. This must be some new ‘right.’ This notion is so foolish as to be refuted by the simple observation that many people cannot even get past high school, mandatory since 1960. A full 15% of our society are felons, drug addicts, in jail, on welfare or suffer from a myriad of mental disorders, but, we learn, these people deserve to own their own homes. Now, ignoring credit ratings and earnings potential, refuted and made obsolete by political organizations like Greenling Institute[12] here, the usual criteria for property owners in terms of loans was trashed for political reasons.

The Bell Curve findings clearly refute the notion that everybody is ‘equal’ or even deserve ‘equal outcomes’ and this fraud was forced upon banks and lending institutions to the point where anybody could get a loan, particularly if they were minorities. Bad credit ratings, drug addiction, jail histories and worse were hidden from banks and such and the inevitable occurred: many people could not afford their own homes or could not even approximate the average citizen who could afford one. We saw drug addicts, felons, welfare recipients, illegal aliens and others given homes with very low interest mortgages and they defaulted. We are surprised?

But, where is the American Dream and who should pay for it? The answer is that those who defaulted on their loans for any reason must be rescued by the taxpayers. Thus we have the expected:

You deserve a home and the ‘rich’ will pay for one for you. It is your ‘right.’ Vote for us.

Today, the New York Times—aka the Walter Duranty Papers[13]--cobbles up a solution to the problem of redistribution of wealth veiled in sorrow, repressed hate and more in this article:

Mortgage rates are rising because of the troubles at the loan finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, threatening to deal another blow to the faltering housing market.” [14]Woes Afflicting Mortgage Giants Raise Loan Rates By Vikas Bajaj Published: July 23, 2008

Really? Who would have thought?

Loan rates are rising because of concern in the financial markets about the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee nearly half of the nation’s $12 trillion mortgage market. The federal government has proposed a rescue, and has urged Congress to approve it quickly.”

This FM and FM organizations were a stupid idea from the New Deal FDR Era and was used as a dumping ground for bad loans. Banks could dump questionable mortgages on the government because they were allowed to and this sorry situation was created by the government in the first place. This is the expected political solution and looks like Social Security: They are going broke.

No matter, the leftist concern is how to make the taxpayer pay for this mess and allow the low class to keep their homes at all cost. That makes political sense so damn the economics.

For borrowers with a $400,000 loan, such a jump could send their monthly payments to $2,338 from $1,417, estimates Louis S. Barnes, a mortgage broker at Boulder West Financial in Boulder, Colo.”

This is astonishing. We learn, from the Times, that interest rate changes might affect mortgage payments! Economics has been advanced by this. We are so proud.

Look at this:

While mortgage rates approached these levels earlier this year and in 2007 during times of stress in the financial markets, the latest move adds urgency to the government’s efforts to restore confidence in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Lawmakers are expected to vote this week on a measure that would give the Treasury Department authority to lend more money to the companies and buy shares in them if they falter.”

So, the US Treasury might have to buy up shares in a mismanaged quasi-government corporation and stick the taxpayers with the bill. That subsidizes failure, as the left always advises.

The main idea here is that the victims of the left need more taxes and, since only the top half pay any taxes at all, we can just tax them and give the proceeds to the ‘poor’ for their votes and all will be well. Fannie Mae is just another leftist tax-whoring cluster that was headed by incompetents or just incompetents and money-hungry bureaucrats like Franklin D. Raines.[15]

Having the Treasury pick up devalued shares in these phony agencies points to a potential debt liability of some 5 trillion dollars. We know who pays taxes and who does not. It should be clear that if people default on their loans and are drug addicts, incompetents, or for any reason  that they can do it again!

Such is the ongoing grunting and grabbing of wealth by the left.
Our economy is very close to collapse and the left-liberals are waiting like vultures to tax what is left and institute more phony social programs like Fannie Mae and Social Security, Socialized Medicine and worse.

And, somehow these parasites stay in power. Vote accordingly.

rycK

Comments to: ryckki@gmail.com


[1] Manifesto of the Communist Party Karl Marx and Frederick Engels, 1848.
                                  
[4] http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/lobby/2379/rosa.htm
Krugman of the NYT Knocks Private Property: Home Ownership Should Not be a National Policy.
[6]“ In pre-revolutionary Russia the Bolsheviks had shared with Rosa Luxemburg the Marxist position that the land must be nationalized as a prerequisite for the organization of large-scale agricultural production in conformity with the socialization of industry. In order to gain the support of the peasants, Lenin abandoned the Marxist agricultural program in favor of that of the Social-Revolutionaries--the heirs of the old Populist movement. Although Rosa Luxemburg recognized this turnabout as an 'excellent tactic,' for her it had nothing to do with the quest for socialism. Property rights must be turned over to the nation, or the state, for only then is it possible to organize agricultural production on a socialistic base. The Bolshevik slogan "immediate seizure and distribution of the land by the peasants" was not a socialist measure, but one which, by creating a new form of private property, cut off the way to such measures. "The Leninist agrarian reform," she wrote, "has created a now and powerful layer of popular enemies of socialism in the countryside, enemies whose resistance will be much more dangerous and stubborn than that of the noble large landowners."
 http://www.geocities.com/CapitolHill/lobby/2379/rosa.htm
[7] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-24ONaYCIzY
[8]http://www.newsobserver.com/news/story/2822385p-9271047c.htmlhttp://tabletalk.salon.com/webx?13@378.YFEia0Fw7g0.7@.773b558f/368. “a former instructor at N.C.StateUniversity, who said blacks must "exterminate white people off the face of the planet."
Kamau Kambon, an author who taught in NCSU's Africana Studies program as recently as last spring, made the comments Oct. 14 during a conference at HowardUniversity in Washington. The conference was televised nationally by C-SPAN, and bloggers picked up on the comments immediately.”
[9] Manifesto of the Communist Party Karl Marx and Frederick Engels, 1848.
[10]rule of philosophical simplicity: the philosophical and scientific rule that simple explanations should be preferred to more complicated ones, and that the explanation of a new phenomenon should be based on what is already known: Ock·ham's ra·zor [ ók?mz ràyz?r ] or Occ·am's ra·zor [ ók?mz ràyz?r ] http://encarta.msn.com/dictionary_1861684439/Ockham%E2%80%99s_razor.html
[11] The Bell Curve: Intelligence and Class Structure in American Life (ISBN: 0029146739)
by Herrnstein, Richard J. and Murray, Charles Free Press of Glencoe , Inc, Old Tappan, New Jersey, U.S.A., 1994.
[13] In honor of that celebrated Communist stooge and liar and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for the NYT. The color RED is used in my essays in honor of Walter Duranty, a saint, if there could be one, in the Marxist Archives of Honor.
[14] Woes Afflicting Mortgage Giants Raise Loan Rates By VIKAS BAJAJ
[15] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A14462-2005Mar30.html

Thursday, January 31, 2013

The Bubble that will Burst Higher than all Previous Bubbles: Depression Looms as the Dollar Crashes




The Bubble that will Burst Higher than all Previous Bubbles: Depression Looms as the Dollar Crashes.

Previously published 11.02.2009. Most Townhall links are broken

Economics, formerly known as the queen of the social sciences[1], is now so complicated that few can understand the process. But, this cognitive barrier does not prevent political activists from distorting the destined outcome of some financial misadventure as they can readily identify and enlist enough lackeys and stooges to rally and assemble a noxious chorus[2] to sing the praises of such an action. Thus we can assemble a quorum to merrily sing the praises of our destruction. That is happening now as we print money with no end in sight. The ‘rich’ will pay for all this.

The current case of rising asset prices has been analyzed by Nouriel Roubini[3] , as is his custom, and his predictions are usually correct. In his article entitled “Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust” we learn this:

Since March there has been a massive rally in all sorts of risky assets – equities, oil, energy and commodity prices – a narrowing of high-yield and high-grade credit spreads, and an even bigger rally in emerging market asset classes (their stocks, bonds and currencies). At the same time, the dollar has weakened sharply, while government bond yields have gently increased but stayed low and stable.”-- Mother of all carry trades [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

Normally, the value of some asset is calculated from its intrinsic value[4] which involves a time element and some projection of the asset’s return in a given time span. We saw wealth evaporate in the housing bubble[5] recently where the intrinsic value was distorted by demand that was driven by explosive credit and government propaganda about ‘affordable’ housing.  Fortunately, we have the law of supply and demand that cannot readily be repealed by governments and that law controls prices and supply. Our current liquidity circus has stimulated demand for assets way beyond their intrinsic values and this will correct itself in a bubble[6] when demand collapses.

But a more important factor fuelling this asset bubble is the weakness of the US dollar, driven by the mother of all carry trades. The US dollar has become the major funding currency of carry trades as the Fed has kept interest rates on hold and is expected to do so for a long time. Investors who are shorting the US dollar to buy on a highly leveraged basis higher-yielding assets and other global assets are not just borrowing at zero interest rates in dollar terms; they are borrowing at very negative interest rates – as low as negative 10 or 20 per cent annualised – as the fall in the US dollar leads to massive capital gains on short dollar positions.”-Mother of all carry trades

The carry trade[7], which is a return or a profit from just holding an asset, allows for big profits as the dollar loses value thus the intrinsic value of equities and such are temporarily distorted until a massive correction is forced by supply and demand as the carry trade becomes negative. The bubble then bursts. This is all driven by shorting the dollar and that increases the supply of dollars and accelerates the downward spiral.

Let us sum up: traders are borrowing at negative 20 per cent rates to invest on a highly leveraged basis on a mass of risky global assets that are rising in price due to excess liquidity and a massive carry trade. Every investor who plays this risky game looks like a genius – even if they are just riding a huge bubble financed by a large negative cost of borrowing – as the total returns have been in the 50-70 per cent range since March.”-- Mother of all carry trades

This is what happens when governments start to just print money. The investment and financial structure of the country is distorted and people find out how to make huge profits off of the money swimming around in every yard and sidewalk.

A reversal in dollar weakness would require that traders then cover their short positions and:

But one day this bubble will burst, leading to the biggest co-ordinated[sic] asset bust ever: if factors lead the dollar to reverse and suddenly appreciate – as was seen in previous reversals, such as the yen-funded carry trade – the leveraged carry trade will have to be suddenly closed as investors cover their dollar shorts. A stampede will occur as closing long leveraged risky asset positions across all asset classes funded by dollar shorts triggers a co-ordinated[sic] collapse of all those risky assets – equities, commodities, emerging market asset classes and credit instruments.”-- Mother of all carry trades

This one, in my view, is just another of several looming bubbles. The phony mortgage mess we had stimulated a false demand on housing and that collapsed as people could not pay their mortgage payments. The next bubble will be whatever our phony government attempts to pump up and that is now: jobs, green products, subsidized cars and other follies. This all stems from a belligerent attitude on finances by our elected officials. They seem to believe that if wealth is lost by homeowners who should never have been given loans to buy houses then we can just print money and ‘forgive’ these excesses with do damage to the economy and the ‘rich’ will take the haircut. The ‘rich’ don’t have that much wealth.

The total world gold supply is thought to be about 158,000 tonnes[8] we find and could be contained in a cube with dimensions of less than 20 meters to an edge. At 32,000 ounces per ton[9] we get about $5,308,800,000,000 valuation on the world’s supply at the current price of $1050 in US dollars. Thus 5.3 trillion dollars represents only ½ of our national debt of 12 trillion and is very small compared to our imputed debt from Social Security, Medicare and the 8 or so trillion dollars printed up by the Federal Reserve which might hit 100 trillion according to some estimates. Note also, that the world debt is much higher than this so it appears that gold is one of the few assets that can withstand an explosion in the money supply. Now, what does the supply and demand law tell us about the future price of gold in US dollars? Thus, there must soon be a rush to convert worthless dollars to tangible assets like gold or real estate or other physical goods.

But, our bubble may be off in time and the next big bust may be Japan. Their current debt to GDP ratio is currently 218% and will rise and our US debt is about 85% [=12/14] and rapidly rising. :

"The debt situation is irrecoverable," said Carl Weinberg from High Frequency Economics. "I don't see any orderly way out of this. They [Japan] will not be able to fund their deficit. There will be a fiscal shutdown, a pension haircut, and bank failures that will rock the world. It is criminally negligent that rating agencies are not blowing the whistle on this."[10]-- It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America. Japan is drifting helplessly towards a dramatic fiscal crisis. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Published: 5:33PM GMT 01 Nov 2009 

But, the hokum chuckers[11][12] in our government will just raise taxes and ‘soak the rich’ and continue on spending all the merry while. That is what parasites do: they feed off the host until it dies.

When this bubble bursts the debris and residue will litter the moon.  

rycK

Comments to: ryckki@gmail.com



[3] Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust By Nouriel Roubini Published: November 1 2009 18:44 | Last updated: November 1 2009 18:44 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html

[4] In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrinsic_value_(finance)

[5] An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, or a speculative mania) is “trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values”.[1][2] (Another way to describe it is: trade in products or assets with inflated values.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

[6] An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, or a speculative mania) is “trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values”.[1][2] (Another way to describe it is: trade in products or assets with inflated values.) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

[7] The carry of an asset is the return obtained from holding it (if positive), or the cost of holding it (if negative) (see also Cost of carry) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carry_trade#Currency

[9] There are 32,150 troy ounces in a metric 1 metric ton

[10] It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
Japan is drifting helplessly towards a dramatic fiscal crisis. For 20 years the world's second-largest economy has been able to borrow cheaply from a captive bond market, feeding its addiction to Keynesian deficit spending – and allowing it to push public debt beyond the point of no return. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard  Published: 5:33PM GMT 01 Nov 2009  http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html

[11] The Cubans Teach Us about Economics and Arithmetic. I hope Paul Krugman reads their Works. He needs some Elementary Instruction.

[12] The Geithner Pledge:

"We have the deepest and most liquid markets for risk-free assets in the world. We're committed to bring our fiscal deficits down over time to a sustainable level.

"We believe in a strong dollar ... and we're going to make sure that we repair and reform the financial system so that we sustain confidence," he said.”[12]-- Geithner tells China its dollar assets are safe On Monday June 1, 2009, By Glenn Somerville http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Geithner-tells-China-its-rb-15396905.html?.v=2

The Dollar Sags in Full View of the World This Invites a Run on the Dollar. Inflation Threatens US.