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Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Krugman’s Own Private View of Europe Muddled with Leftist Politics and a Truncated Economic Analysis.

Krugman’s Own Private View of Europe Muddled with Leftist Politics and a Truncated Economic Analysis.

Abstract: Paul Krugman of the New York Times—aka the Walter Duranty Papers [1]-- has twisted logic, history and evidence during some frantic rescue operation that might give some credence to the massive spending in the US. Apart from not acknowledging the disastrous debts of the EU he clams that what they are doing is fine and we should spend more and more. As his apparent theme he states this: “American conservatives have long had their own private Europe of the imagination — a place of economic stagnation and terrible health care, a collapsing society groaning under the weight of Big Government.” All this is true, of course, but he valiantly defends what is happening in the EU as a sop of sorts to vindicate our massive spending and colossal government. Their system must be some kind of success he argues so we should spend ourselves in to debt like they do. They are crashing in debt and Krugman finds nothing odd about this. Spend more!

Paul Krugman has maintained a tangential association only with certain narrow elements that skirt around basic economics that gives him a bit of visibility as he presses his narrow advocacy for bigger government of the leftist sort. His Nobel Prize[2] was as much an embarrassment to him as was the even phonier Obama Prize[3] given for nothing he had done, or, probably will ever do. This is strictly partisan politics of the crudest sort. He maintains a solid stance on higher taxes, more spending and bigger government—no matter what the issue. He argued for nationalization of the banks. He can condemn deficits only if they happen in the enemy camp. So, for our pleasure, he again shows how he can warp any comment or political observation into a new social cause fresh with effervescent excitement and reinvent socialism anew from its current form.

Let us begin with this two-facedness:

Krugman, in a November 2004 interview, criticized the "enormous" Bush deficit.”We have a world-class budget deficit," he said, "not just as in absolute terms, of course -- it's the biggest budget deficit in the history of the world -- but it's a budget deficit that, as a share of GDP, is right up there."

The numbers? The deficit in fiscal year 2004 -- $413 billion, 3.5 percent of the gross domestic product.”--[4] Krugman: Bush's Deficit Bad, Obama's Deficit Good By Larry Elder [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

Deficit spending is bad if done by Republicans; deficit spending is good if done by liberals or their allies.

He begins with this current blather:

President Obama’s State of the Union address was a ho-hum affair. But the official Republican response, from Representative Paul Ryan, was really interesting. And I don’t mean that in a good way.”[5]Their Own Private Europe By Paul Krugman Op-Ed Columnist Published: January 2 2011 [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

How to best read my blogs:

[I offer extensive quotes in this blog so that the reader can view the exact language and can be confident that nothing was taken out of context or that nobody was misquoted. The easiest way to take in the salient points is to read the emphatic points in the quotes and then peruse my comments. Comments on my comments are always welcome: ryckki@gmail.com.] [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

This opening line is the sort of literary blunder that skilled editors identify to retyrb an unsolicited book manuscript without reading further. But, lurking somewhere near the top of his little stack of soiled clichés and platitudes we find this mandatory idiom:

Austerity is self-defeating: when everyone tries to pay down debt at the same time, the result is depression and deflation, and debt problems grow even worse. And conversely, it is possible — indeed, necessary — for the nation as a whole to spend its way out of debt: a temporary surge of deficit spending, on a sufficient scale, can cure problems brought on by past excesses.[6]--1938 in 2010 By Paul Krugman

This makes no sense nor does it relate to any known form of reality as the ‘everyone’ notion here is vacant in truth and his mandatory conclusion about worse times has no basis in history. It appears to be some strange variant of the Eternal Zero Sum Law [7] that liberals use to show us that because some have more than the average, they are greedy and raked in that loot nefariously. Of course, the opposite response from his condemnation must be true, following leftist logic, and we learn that we can spend our way out of debt although we know that every nation that has tried this has failed and their economy or currency or both have crashed. Krugman’s stogy advocacy is well known: Krugman recites his own litanies in these links:[8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]

Knowing his conclusion beforehand allows us to inspect his ‘logic’ such as it is, and have some good laughs.

But what caught my eye, when I read the transcript, was what he said about other countries: “Just take a look at what’s happening to Greece, Ireland, the United Kingdom and other nations in Europe. They didn’t act soon enough; and now their governments have been forced to impose painful austerity measures: large benefit cuts to seniors and huge tax increases on everybody.”

It’s a good story: Europeans dithered on deficits, and that led to crisis. Unfortunately, while that’s more or less true for Greece, it isn’t at all what happened either in Ireland or in Britain, whose experience actually refutes the current Republican narrative.”-- Their Own Private Europe By Paul Krugman

This may be an unconscious play on words of the sort inspired by 1980 song, "Your Own Private Idaho" performed by B-52's.[44] The inference here is that the economic narrowness of this little piece conforms very well with the song in that he is looking into a very small mirror. There may or may not be a direct linkage but this similarity is very close and expected of writers with myopic views. One-trick dogs and ponies get their applause in this manner.

Ryan’s comment is hard core, iron clad fact but he tosses in Greece as a maybe here. The first thrust in a case like this is to discredit Congressman Ryan’s statement, if only in part, thus condemning the conclusion. Krugman’s persuasion here is tinted in time elements in a way that their spending and big government must be solutions to some problem. The sorry facts are that the EU was a huge mistake in the first place where one lethally assumes that a single currency can accommodate disparate nations in various stages of growth, debt or decay.

From a better perspective in London:

Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland will stay trapped in structural depression through this year, and well into next, rotating from a liquidity crisis to a chronic political and social crisis that exposes the inability of elected governments to counter 1930s job wastage. Unemployment is 28pc in Andalucia, and 30pc in Cadiz."[45]Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor 8:30PM GMT 16 Jan 2011

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is an authority on European economics and finance. Note his use of the term structural depression and its consequences. The term ‘structural’ here comes from observations about the causes of massive recessions and the Great Depression.[46] The word means, essentially, how the system works in the macroeconomic sense. Thus, we could argue that the EU’s currency system and high taxes are forcing all members into deficit spending and that some of the members are being forced into bankruptcy or perhaps urged to leave the union. Krugman’s main point here is that this does not apply to Britain or Iceland. That is not true. This is the source of the structural depression. This must change.

Iceland’s case was one in which its banks unpretentiously speculated in currency gyrations and their currency crashed to become worthless. They had to be ‘restructured’ with loans from Russia and other sources. Britain, languishing in terminal debt, originally stayed out of the euro thus preserving their chance to QE [quantitatively ease the currency by printing more] and gain relief--something that the other members cannot do.

Ireland’s case was caused by a sudden collapse in the real estate markets as what happened in the US, Spain and other member of the EU. The Irish loans were then socialized and the taxpayers were stuck with the debt. We have an exact counterpart in the US with similar monkeys on our backs [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac]. This is a common theme in leftist politics and exactly the same as in the phony General Motors mess.[47]

More on this structural part:

David Cameron's coalition Government has pledged tax increases and spending cuts in an effort to eliminate a structural deficit estimated at £109bn. If the Government can begin to deliver on the promise then it should help both the currency and stock markets, Barcap[48] predicts.” 7:50PM GMT 09 Dec 2010[49]

Back to reality?:

But then, American conservatives have long had their own private Europe of the imagination — a place of economic stagnation and terrible health care, a collapsing society groaning under the weight of Big Government. The fact that Europe isn’t actually like that — did you know that adults in their prime working years are more likely to be employed in Europe than they are in the United States? — hasn’t deterred them. So we shouldn’t be surprised by similar tall tales about European debt problems.”-- Their Own Private Europe By Paul Krugman

The EU is crashing in debt with unemployment among the young ranging from 35-40% in countries like Greece and Spain and Ireland. This is the wobbly part of the current Krugman fantasy. He thinks that their massive debt and the collapse of Club Med members along with some close nations like Latvia and Iceland are in some form of self control. A peek at the debt clock by mousing “world debt clocks” in Europe shows us the facts. Even Germany’s external debt-to-GDP is 148%, some 50% higher than the US.

Krugman now explains Ireland and Britain:

Let’s talk about what really happened in Ireland and Britain.

Yadda yadda yadda!!!

So what went wrong? The answer is: out-of-control banks; Irish banks ran wild during the good years, creating a huge property bubble. When the bubble burst, revenue collapsed, causing the deficit to surge, while public debt exploded because the government ended up taking over bank debts. And harsh spending cuts, while they have led to huge job losses, have failed to restore confidence.”--Their Own Private Europe By Paul Krugman [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

Of course the massive debts, of ultimate toxicity we observe, in Fannie Mae had nothing to do with the phony ‘affordable housing.” And we all know who structured and support this mess. It is the liberal establishment that caused the housing bubble[50] with the phony CRA [Community Reinvestment Act][51][52] that mandated subprime loans to people with no job or credit as a sop for their votes. We want an end to this insane spending[53] on the part of the radical left[54] and some way to protect our currency from utter debasement from inflation.[55]

Here Krugman shows his indomitable political bias for not condemning the left for exactly what they did in the US. It is the Nanny State Socialism that has brought this mess on.

The lesson of the Irish debacle, then, is very nearly the opposite of what Mr. Ryan would have us believe. It doesn’t say “cut spending now[56], or bad things will happen”; it says that balanced budgets won’t protect you from crisis if you don’t effectively regulate your banks — a point made in the newly released report of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, which concludes that “30 years of deregulation and reliance on self-regulation” helped create our own catastrophe. Have I mentioned that Republicans are doing everything they can to undermine financial reform?”-- Their Own Private Europe By Paul Krugman

Like nationalization of the banks??

It was Krugman that wanted to nationalize the banks and gain ‘full control.’ See Krugman’s blog entitled: Anti-nationalization arguments[57] with this salient comment: “…benefits from nationalization...” He would have a better career with Lenin or Castro.

He prattles on:

Which brings me back to Paul Ryan and his response to President Obama. Again, American conservatives have long used the myth of a failing Europe to argue against progressive policies in America. More recently, they have tried to appropriate Europe’s debt problems on behalf of their own agenda, never mind the fact that events in Europe actually point the other way.”-- Their Own Private Europe By Paul Krugman

This is such a sorry corruption of history it begs this paragraph as the place to cut off this fluff.

Krugman omits the obvious: In the chaos of the EU spending was excessive, debt piled up and the rating agencies lowered the credit ratings of Club Med and Spain and Portugal and others and now they howl and beg for alms. They are broke and need ‘structured’ bailouts. The bailouts are on the way from the ECB but Krugman finds no problem with either the debt or spending?? The EU is going down in flames and will certainly fly apart.

Check out these quotes form the EU ‘leaders:’[58]

So, firstly, let us arrange this picture for a proper historical view on Portugal, the latest PIIGS to crash:--rycK

[1] Portugal has had a stagnant economy for a decade.

[2] Portugal has had some financial problems and bond yields were forced up.

[4] Portugal announced they don't need any help. Portugal's central bank wants the bail out money.

[5] Portugal accepts help and then bond rates dip a little. Rates then rise

[6] Portugal's deficit is now "below" target of 7.3% "as promised."

[7] Japan will buy emergency aid bonds.

[8] "EU leaders are working towards a "comprehensive" plan to contain the spreading sovereign debt crisis,"...

Then:

"“Our most pressing priority is to break the vicious circle of unsustainable debt, financial turbulence and sub-optimal growth,” he [Oli Rehn][59] said.

"He also called for the €440 bn European bailout fund to be "reinforced and the scope of its activity widened."" [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

This comes from the EU leadership!

As for the US: With some%17 total and real unemployment in the US and massive unrecoverable debt is outpacing the crushing level of $47,000 for every inhabitant except the dogs in the US. And we print some more some funny money to be thrown out to winds to entice consumers to buy some more plastic goodies from China to ‘stimulate the economy.’ We now subsidize our idle workers for 99 weeks on the dole? We wildly print money using the phony euphemism known as ‘quantitative easing’ and expect what? Our currencies will be come stronger? How many times do we raise the debt limit this year? How long can our deficit of 10% of the GDP keep running?

They run a kabuki theatre in the EU and in some US states with some nations taking their turns going through the turnstiles mumbling about not taking bail-out gifts and then they do? Some states employ sleight of hand, sobs, promises and issue IOUs to keep the financial system from crashing. Has anybody looked at the price of food lately? Copper? Oil? We can print money and prices will fall? California gropes for alms.

But, Krugman remains ‘positive’ on QE and social spending.

rycK

Comments to: ryckki@gmail.com



[1] In honor of that celebrated Communist stooge and liar and winner of the Pulitzer Prize for the NYT. The color RED is used in my essays in honor of Walter Duranty, a saint, if there could be one, in the Marxist Archives of Honor.

[5] Their Own Private Europe By Paul Krugman Op-Ed Columnist Published: January 2 x [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.] 2011http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1&hp

[6] 1938 in 2010 By Paul Krugman [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.] Published: September 5, 2010

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/06/opinion/06krugman.html?src=me&ref=general

Krugman Offers Us Canned Circular Revisionism: We Can Repeat the War Time Successes of FDR.

http://ryckki.blogspot.com/2010/09/krugman-offers-us-canned-circular.html

[7] “Many economic situations are not zero-sum, since valuable goods and services can be created, destroyed, or badly allocated, and any of these will create a net gain or loss. Assuming the counterparties are acting rationally, any commercial exchange is a non-zero-sum activity, because each party must consider the goods s/he is receiving as being at least fractionally more valuable to him/her than the goods he/she is delivering. Economic exchanges must benefit both parties enough above the zero-sum such that each party can overcome his or her transaction costs.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum#Economics_and_non-zero-sum.

The New York Times Returns to Mindlessly Advocating Tax Hikes: Propaganda Lesson #50,001.

Monday, January 07, 2008 11:25 AM

http://rycksrationalizations.townhall.com/g/a9715023-f043-4d78-8e23-1cf0d1fd118a

[8] Another Leftist Bondage Scheme for the Bond Gods. Krugman Speaks of the Evils of the Austerians

http://ryckki.blogspot.com/2010/08/another-leftist-bondage-scheme-for-bond.html

[9] Krugman Ignores the Fact that Obama has Trashed the US economy and “Defines Prosperity Down”

http://ryckki.blogspot.com/2010/08/krugman-ignores-fact-that-obama-has.html

[12] Krugman Searches for His Own Truth in an Irish Mirror. He Reflects upon the Mirror and Finds Himself as Originator of the Eternal Solution. Tax and Spend.

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2010/03/09/krugman_searches_for_his_own_truth_in_an_irish_mirror_he_reflects_upon_the_mirror_and_finds_himself_as_originator_of_the_eternal_solution_tax_and_spend.thtml

[13] Krugman Offers an Essay on Misdirecting Political Power. We can Control the Banks and prevent the Next Crises, but No Details, Just give us Power.

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2010/03/02/krugman_offers_an_essay_on_misdirecting_political_power_we_can_control_the_banks_and_prevent_the_next_crises,_but_no_details,_just_give_us_power.thtml

[22] Krugman Exhausts His Vocabulary by Monotonously Reciting the Only Two Words He Understands In Economics: Tax and Spend. Let’s Tax the Stock Markets!!

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2009/11/27/krugman_exhausts_his_vocabulary_by_monotonously_reciting_the__only_two_words_he_understands_in_economics_tax_and_spend_let%e2%80%99s_tax_the_stock_markets!!.thtml

[24] Paul Krugman Juggles Apples and Oranges until He has the Perfect New Economic Stew: Government Subsidies for Idle Workers.

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2009/11/14/paul_krugman_juggles_apples_and_oranges_until_he_has_the_perfect_new_economic_stew__government_subsidies_for_idle_workers.thtml

[27] Krugman Confuses Bacchus, Baucus and Baloney with the Threshold for Healthcare. Not Enough Big Government in the Latest Episode

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2009/09/18/krugman_confuses_bacchus,_baucus_and_baloney_with_the_threshold_for_healthcare__not_enough_big_government_in_the_latest_episode.thtml

[44] It means "living inside an Idaho potato", or a very small space. Metaphorically, it refers to someone who is not paying attention because he is daydreaming, or under the influence, or otherwise wrapped up within his own very narrow sphere of interest or frame of reference.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Own%20private%20Idaho.

[45] Telegraph Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor 8:30PM GMT 16 Jan 2011

[48] A financial house in London.

[51]Bear Stearns made the first public securitization of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) loans started in 1997.[6] Editorialists in some American newspapers[7][8] and US Congressman Ron Paul[9] say the CRA loans were lent to otherwise un-credit-worthy consumers in the name of ending discrimination, although an analysis of actual lending patterns does not generally support this conclusion.[10][11][12]

On June 22, 2007, Bear Stearns pledged a collateralized loan of up to $3.2 billion to "bail out" one of its funds, the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Fund, while negotiating with other banks to loan money against collateral to another fund, the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Enhanced Leveraged Fund.[13] The funds were invested in thinly traded collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) found to be worth less than their mark-to-market value. Merrill Lynch seized $850 million worth of the underlying collateral but only was able to auction $100 million of them. The incident sparked concern of contagion as Bear Stearns might be forced to liquidate its CDOs, prompting a mark-down of similar assets in other portfolios.[14][15] Richard A. Marin, a senior executive at Bear Stearns Asset Management responsible for the two hedge funds, was replaced on June 29 by Jeffrey B. Lane, a former Vice Chairman of rival investment bank, Lehman Brothers.[16]

During the week of July 16, 2007, Bear Stearns disclosed that the two subprime hedge funds had lost nearly all of their value amid a rapid decline in the market for subprime mortgages.

[52] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Community_Reinvestment_Act

Community Reinvestment Act (or CRA, Pub.L. 95-128, title VIII, 91 Stat. 1147, 12 U.S.C. § 2901 et seq.)

[53] Inefficiency in California, Greece and Other Places and the Socialist Disease of Parasitism: They will NOT stop spending and WILL default.

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2010/03/05/inefficiency_in_california,_greece_and_other_places_and_the_socialist_disease_of_parasitism_they_will_not_stop_spending_and_will_default.thtml

[56] Oh yes it does. Auserity is in progress with salaries cut, pensions slashed and government spending way down.

[57] Krugman advocated nationalization of the banks: “The benefits from nationalization come from (a) giving taxpayers a share of the upside rather than just a share of the downside, which is where we are now (b) ending the gaming of the system, even looting, that is encouraged by the current system of implicit guarantees (Simon Johnson has been very good on that) (c) making it politically and fiscally feasible to put in enough capital to revitalize the system. These advantages are there whatever you decide to do with junior bank debt.”http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/03/08/anti-nationalization-arguments/

[59] Olli Rehn is the “Enlargement Commissioner at the European Commission.”

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