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Wednesday, October 20, 2010

The Quest for Financial Solvency and Fiscal Prudence in the US, UK and EU and the Probable Outcomes.

The Quest for Financial Solvency and Fiscal Prudence in the US, UK and EU and the Probable Outcomes.

Abstract: The United Kingdom is testing the dike that holds back the flood of socialist waters and other more menacing political fluids. They are going insolvent as are most of the nations in the West who were bitten by the rabid socialist bat. They face a monumental hurdle where they must slash spending, raise taxes in some areas, quench certain government programs and cut welfare. The US is in the same hopeless mess. The battle for a capitalist society to survive over some far leftist perfidious concoction of a command economy is now underway. The rabid left think they can tax and spend in perpetuity and if any economy crashes they can always blame capitalism and call for a revolution ‘for the people.’ The poor can always be enlisted to die for some Marxist cause with the promise of ‘land reform’ and other lies. The US is in the same situation as the UK and EU and face the same stubborn neo-Marxists as now haunt California.

How to best read my blogs:

[I offer extensive quotes in this blog so that the reader can view the exact language and can be confident that nothing was taken out of context or that nobody was misquoted. The easiest way to take in the salient points is to read the emphatic points in the quotes and then peruse my comments. Comments on my comments are always welcome: ryckki@gmail.com.]

The Brits have just initiated their program to cut spending:

The Chancellor of the Exchequer is mocked:

Don’t worry; this isn’t going to hurt, or not much anyway. Listening to George Osborne deliver his Comprehensive Spending Review, you would be forgiven for thinking that he is giving away more than he is cutting.”[1]-- George Osborne targeted welfare to make up the numbers By Jeremy Warner Oct 20, 2010 [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

This is the very brink of the precipice of the Nanny State as it collapses, but in the U.K. case, some of it will unfortunately survive.[2] They struggle among themselves for possible solutions to this problem.[3]

It should be very clear to all who can add or subtract that socialism is not working here or anywhere else.

The bawling and howling must now commence with solemn marches against the evil banks and their political puppets that are destroying their well-structured and carefully thought out society. The progressives cannot be held responsible for any of this caused by wild spending. Tax the rich is the eternal slogan.

After all the tears, the entire EU system faces a terminal and catastrophic collapse with the euro driving down to zero value like Iceland and the cabalistic deconstruction of this ‘union’ with member states flying off in all directions to print their own currencies again.

Those hard-core Keynesians who hoped for more QE [why stop printing money when we can ‘tax the rich’?] have to be traumatized a bit and the ECB bank cannot form a major majority on any decision. They are paralyzed because their country is essentially divided 50:50 like the US and others.

For the U.K., the FY 2010 debt will be £0.772 trillion for about 60% of the GDP. It has been as high as those three times [1812 or so] and twice that in 1949. This was paid off to lower the debt to about £40 billion in 1992. It will be interesting to see if they can do this again.

Here are my requirements for a possible solution to US, UK and EU debt problems:

It should be clear to all [except socialists] that the following must happen:

[1] The yearly budget deficit should be forced to zero so the debt does not tend to accumulate.

[2] The interest on the current debt must be paid and not monetized.

[3] The principal must be paid off, also, in contemporary time units as debt obligations come due.

[4] New spending projects must balance with cuts to approach zero sum.

These four steps are a nightmare and the resistance to these actions will be fierce. The same process must hold for the US and the EU. To pay off the U.K. debt that now hovers at 60% of the GDP some reasonable fraction will have to be set aside and although these calculations are fiercely intricate the debt retirement fraction should be somewhere around 5%. This then stretches out to a dozen years or so not counting interest and inflation. This is a huge number [about 40 £bln]. If only 2% then this is 15 billion pounds sterling and the time stretches to 30 years. This looks like a massive project. The US debt is now 92% of GDP. For California, bitten by this rabid bat, the 500 bln in pension liabilities coupled with some 20 bln in debt, inter alia, and tax revenue base of only about 80 bln forces this state to GDP ratio to about 700%.[4] That is hopeless.

Notice that the new and wonderful spending on carbon footprint reductions, windmills and other follies[5] like perhaps offering schools with maybe a dozen languages available everywhere and at no cost are now out of reach. This spending cut theory is austerity in full bloom and cuts at the very heart of socialism, the true intention of progressives, liberals and radicals. Their will be much gnashing of the fangs over this one.

There is no reason to believe that this can happen [in full] anywhere. The polis in every entity is loaded with entitlement holders.

I frequently paraphrase Adam Smith in cases like this:

If you are stupid enough to give voting rights to the low classes then they will vote your money directly into their pockets while it lasts.”[6]rycK paraphrasing Adam Smith.

Politicians in the US, UK and EU have no will power to set up such a program and even if they did the socialist half of the polis will vote only for more money and import poverty to stuff ballot boxes and bawl about welfare. Thus, there is only one chance to do this in two years or before elections are held in the US and other countries in the West. Too much cutting and the ignoranti will think that the left can provide them money and entitlements and more and vote to reverse the political vectors of the current government. Then we will have slugs like Spartacus back on our cases.[7]

Note that this 2% of GDP is about what the UN wants to have as part of their world government tax system. I am sure they would welcome ten times as much.

The potential outcome then is that these goals can be doubtless achieved only by inflation and defaults.

The US debt is crushing our society. Since there are only 65 million workers to handle 12 [now 14.5] trillion dollars in National Debt and only half of them pay taxes above the median of $32,000 then this works out to $192,000 [written 7 April 2009] each for these workers and that ignores Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and state debts.[8][9] But, there is no signal to stop spending. The current level is something past $208,000 each.

Overspending, to bribe voters to keep socialists in power as we see in California[10][11][12][13] [Our National Leper[14][15]], New York, and other states, is testing the bond markets. California now hopes for a miracle in revenues and will ‘wait.’ The federal stimuli had a very short and shallow effect on the US economy but did send money to the states. They spent that and now want to spend and borrow much more. Attempts to provide federal “stimuli” lead to disasters like the previous ‘jobs’ program that spent $92,000 per job![16] And, then, we spent $24,000 per car on the Clunker Follies and a mere $43,000 per house on the housing scam. [17][18]This is a farce.

California has the standard liberal [hence terminal] mental disease that forces them to hearten pot smoking, perversions and raising taxes on everything in sight to service more and more lazy citizens holding cozy union jobs in government and their allies the noble illegal aliens who are working very hard to get a piece of the good society although they commit several felonies each to do this including voting. CA then wishes for gifts to prevent them from crashing as the US can rescue them. Left up to the leftists, this might happen unendingly.

The goal to balance cuts and taxes in the U.K.:

Whether the Chancellor can continue to claim that the balance of his fiscal consolidation is 80 per cent cuts and only 20 per cent tax increases is open to debate. Sure enough, lower entitlements are a cut in Government spending, but they also amount to an effective tax rise, as the net effect is to depress the disposable incomes of those affected in the same way as a tax rise would.”--George Osborne targeted welfare to make up the numbers

The purpose of entitlements was to grow government and force the polis to vote for socialism.[19] This worked in many places and now the financial systems in many nations are ready to collapse. The threat of fiscal or economic collapse is apparently not a threat to the far left and their socialist allies. The rabid left can find great opportunities to charge capitalism and start revolutions if this happens.

That is what they have decided to do[20] and now [written 7 April 2009] they have the votes. The lower half will always vote money to themselves. What options do they have? The rich will always vote the opportunity to make more profits. The prophecy that such a decision will ultimately make the poor poorer is not a consideration when politicians have the majority vote from the poor. Our socialist government will spend and spend until they are forced to stop. Nobody can rescue the US, UK or EU.

We are sailing off into unknown waters with no compass, water or charts. This might not end well.

rycK

Comments to: ryckki@gmail.com



[1] George Osborne targeted welfare to make up the numbers By Jeremy Warner Oct 20, 2010 http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/jeremywarner/100008181/chancellor-targets-welfare-to-make-up-the-numbers/ [Emphasis is mine in all quotes.]

The Princeling of Wails has Started the Dooms Day Clock: 99 Months to Go to Doom. http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2009/03/12/the_princeling_of_wails_has_started_the_dooms_day_clock_99_months_to_go_to_doom.thtml

[7] Pelosi: The New Red Flag Rules of Spartacus.

Thursday, November 09, 2006 10:37 AM

[8] The Fed Thinks of Ways to Claw Back Some of the Stimulus Money: This Will be A Disaster as Congress Will Continue to Spend and Spend.

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2010/01/03/the_fed_thinks_of_ways_to_claw_back_some_of_the_stimulus_money_this_will_be_a_disaster_as_congress_will_continue_to_spend_and_spend.thtml

[9] The Fed Thinks of Ways to Claw Back Some of the Stimulus Money: This Will be A Disaster as Congress Will Continue to Spend and Spend.

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2010/01/03/the_fed_thinks_of_ways_to_claw_back_some_of_the_stimulus_money_this_will_be_a_disaster_as_congress_will_continue_to_spend_and_spend.thtml

[14] The Proud March of the Financial Lepers: Greece Leads the Way Down for California and Other Beggars.

http://rycksrationalizations.blogtownhall.com/2010/02/14/the_proud_march_of_the_financial_lepers_greece_leads_the_way_down_for_california_and_other_beggars.thtml

[20] Adam Smith’s market never stood alone By Amartya Sen Published: March 10 2009 20:15 | Last updated: March 10 2009 20:15http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f2829fa-0daf-11de-8ea3-0000779fd2ac.html

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